Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Defend $68k After CPI Drop And Coinbase Data?

Bitcoin price today trades near $68,343, down 0.65% in the past 24 hours after failing to establish support above $70,000 over the weekend. The move comes as Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong revealed retail users are accumulating during the correction, while January CPI data showed inflation cooling to 2.4%, the lowest level in months.

Coinbase Retail Buying The Dip Despite 45% Correction

Retail users on Coinbase have been very resilient during these market conditions, according to our data:

– They’ve been buying the dip – we’ve seen a native unit increase for retail users across $BTC and $ETH

– They have diamond hands – vast majority of customers had native unit…

— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) February 15, 2026

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong shared data showing retail users on the platform have been “very resilient during these market conditions.” According to Armstrong, retail traders have been buying the dip with native unit increases for both $BTC and $ETH. Most notably, the vast majority of customers had native unit balances in February equal to or greater than their balances in December.

The data suggests retail holders are accumulating despite Bitcoin dropping 45% from the October highs near $125,000. When retail balances increase during corrections, it typically indicates long-term conviction rather than panic selling. This pattern contrasts with prior bear markets where retail distribution accelerated as prices fell.

Armstrong’s comments come as Bitcoin attempts to hold the $68,000 support zone after briefly rallying above $70,000 following Friday’s CPI release.

CPI Cools To 2.4%, Boosting Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Inflation growth slowed to 2.4% year-over-year in January from 2.7% in December, official data showed, reinforcing expectations for at least two 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026.

The cooling CPI reading sent the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling to 4.05%, the lowest level since early December.

Bitcoin rallied from nearly $66,800 on Friday to over $70,000 over the weekend following the CPI release, but failed to establish a foothold above that psychological level.

Related: Stable Price Prediction: STABLE Open Interest Rebounds as Price Targets Breakout

The inability to hold $70,000 despite positive macro data suggests the market remains focused on near-term technical resistance rather than fundamental catalysts.

Price Tests Ascending Trendline Support

$BTC Price Dynamics (Source: TradingView)

On the daily chart, Bitcoin continues to trade below all major moving averages. The 20-day EMA sits at $73,188, the 50-day at $80,626, the 100-day at $87,426, and the 200-day at $93,851. All four EMAs remain stacked downward, creating a clear resistance ceiling. Supertrend stays bearish at $79,576, confirming sellers control momentum.

The chart shows:

• Price testing the $75,000 support zone
• All major EMAs acting as overhead resistance
• Supertrend bearish, confirming downtrend intact
• $60,000 psychological support as next major demand zone

Bitcoin tested the $60,000 level predicted by Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer as the cycle bottom, bouncing 14% from those lows to current levels. However, the structure remains corrective despite the recovery. The failure to reclaim the 20-day EMA at $73,188 shows buyers lack the strength to reverse the trend.

Related: Ethereum Price Prediction: Will $ETH Reclaim $2,119 Fibonacci After 56% Correction?

A daily close above $73,188 would flip the 20-day EMA and signal the first sign of trend exhaustion. Until that happens, each bounce represents a relief rally inside a broader corrective phase. Breaking below $65,000 would retest the February lows near $60,000 and invalidate the recovery attempt.

Ascending Trendline Provides Critical Support

$BTC Price Action (Source: TradingView)

The 1-hour chart reveals Bitcoin testing an ascending trendline that has provided support since the February 5 low near $60,000. Parabolic SAR sits at $68,863, acting as immediate resistance. DMI shows all three lines converging, indicating weak momentum in both directions.

The structure shows:

• Price bouncing off ascending trendline support near $68,000
• SAR resistance at $68,863 capping upside attempts
• Higher lows forming from the $60,000 base

Buyers are defending the ascending trendline for the fifth time in recent sessions. Each test increases the risk of breakdown, as support levels weaken with repeated testing. The failure to break above $70,000 despite positive CPI data shows sellers remain in control of shorter timeframes.

A clean break above $68,863 would flip the SAR and place $70,000 back in range. A breakdown below the ascending trendline would trigger another leg down toward $66,000 and eventually retest $65,000 support if selling pressure returns.

Outlook: Will Bitcoin Go Up?

The next move depends on whether $BTC can hold the ascending trendline and reclaim $73,188.

• Bullish case: A sustained move above $70,000 with a close above $73,188 would flip the 20-day EMA and signal trend exhaustion. That would place $80,626 back in range and validate the cycle bottom thesis.
• Bearish case: A breakdown below the ascending trendline exposes $66,000, with further downside toward $60,000 if retail accumulation fails to absorb selling pressure. Losing the trendline confirms deeper correction ahead.

Related: Cardano Price Prediction: ADA Tests Trendline Support After Hoskinson’s Market Warning

Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.

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